Belmont CA: Duxbury Press (1996),
It is a pleasure to acknowledge the help I have had with the preparation of this text. First mention goes to my students, who craved the notes from which the first edition grew. For resource support, thanks to the Lundquist College of Business at the University of Oregon, Decision Research of Eugene, Oregon, Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., of Menlo Park, California, and the Fuqua School of Business of Duke University.
Oddly enough, I owe a special debt of gratitude to the authors of competing decision analysis texts. Their treatments of various topics typically inspired me to try to find a way to bring the insights I gained from their work to my students. Ron Howard's enthusiasm for influence diagrams to some extent influenced my decision to incorporate them into the first edition. Adam Borison's efforts likewise were instrumental in getting DPL incorporated into the second edition. Also, I have been influenced by Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards's advanced text Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research, Derek Bunn'sApplied Decision Analysis, and, of course, Ralph Keeney's Value Focused Thinking.
A number of individuals have provided comments on portions of the book at various stages. Thanks to Deborah Amaral, Sam Bodily, Cathy Barnes, George Benson, Dave Braden, Bill Burns, Peter Farquhar, Ken Gaver, Andy Golub, Gordon Hazen, Max Henrion, Don Keefer, Ralph Keeney, Robin Keller, Craig Kirkwood, Don Kleinmuntz, Irv LaValle, George MacKenzie, Allan Murphy, Bob Nau, Roger Pfaffenberger, Steve Powell, H.V. Ravinder, Terry Reilly, Gerald Rose, Sam Roy, Rakesh Sarin, Ross Shachter, Jim Smith, Bob Winkler, and Wayne Winston. Special thanks to Deborah Amaral for guidance in writing the "Municipal Solid Waste" case in Chapter 9; to Dave Braden for outstanding feedback as he and his students used manuscript versions of the first edition; to Susan Brodt for guidance and suggestions for rewriting the creativity material in Chapter 6; and to Kevin McCardle for allowing me to use numerous problems from his statistics course. Thanks also to all of the editors who have worked closely with me over the years: Patty Adams, Marcia Cole, Mary Douglas, Curt Hinrichs, and Michael Payne.
Finally, thanks once again to my wife, Sheri, and to my children for their forebearance while I worked many long hours on both the first and second editions. I have not promised anything, but I am sure they are hoping that the second edition will be the last!
Use the buttons below to access sections of the hyper-preface.
Introduction | New in the Second Edition | Guidelines for Students
Computers and Decision Analysis | A Word to Instructors
Keeping Up with Changes | Acknowledgements
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