Belmont CA: Duxbury Press (1996),
The book covers most of the concepts that I consider important for a basic understanding of decision analysis. Although I have tried to write an elementary introduction to decision analysis, this does not mean that the material is itself elementary. In fact, the more I teach decision analysis, the more I realize that the technical level of the math is low, while the level of the analysis is high. Students must be willing to think clearly and analytically about the problems and issues that arise in decision situations. Good decision analysis requires clear thinking; sloppy thinking results in worthless analysis.
Of course, some topics are more demanding than others. The more difficult sections are labeled as optional. My faith in students and readers compels me to say that anyone who can handle the nonoptional material can, with a bit more effort and thought, also handle the optional material. Thus the label is perhaps best thought of as a warning regarding the upcoming topic. On the other hand, if you do decide to skip the optional material, no harm will be done.
In general, I believe that really serious learning happens when problems are tackled on one's own. I have included a wide variety of exercises, questions, problems, and case studies. The exercises are relatively easy drills of the material. The questions and problems often require thinking beyond the material in the text. Some concepts are presented and dealt with only in the problems. Do not shy away from the problems! You can learn a lot by working through them.
Many case studies are included in Making Hard Decisions. A few of the many successful applications of decision analysis show up as case studies in the book. In addition, many issues are explored in the case studies in the context of current events. For example, the AIDS case at the end of Chapter 7 demonstrates how probability techniques can be used to interpret the results of medical tests. In addition to the real-world cases, the book contains many hypothetical cases and examples, as well as fictional historical accounts, which I have tried to make as realistic as possible.
Some cases and problems are realistic in the sense that not every bit of information is given. In these cases, appropriate assumptions are required. On one hand, this may cause some frustration. On the other hand, incomplete information is typical in the real world. Being able to work with problems that are messy in this way is an important skill.
Finally, many of the cases and problems involve controversial issues. For example, the material on AIDS (Chapter 7) or medical ethics (Chapter 15) may evoke strong emotional responses from some readers. In writing a book like this, there are two choices. We can avoid the hard social problems that might offend some readers. Or we can face these problems that need careful thought and discussion. I have taken the second approach because I believe these issues require our attention. Moreover, even though decision analysis does not provide the answers to these problems, it does provide a useful framework for thinking about the difficult decisions that we as a society must make.
Use the buttons below to access sections of the hyper-preface.
Introduction | New in the Second Edition | Guidelines for Students
Computers and Decision Analysis | A Word to Instructors
Keeping Up with Changes | Acknowledgements
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