(Excerpt from: Clemen, Robert T., Making Hard Decisions, 2nd Ed.
Copyright (1996) by Duxbury Press, Belmont CA. This material may not be reproduced without the express written permission of Duxbury Press.)
INTRODUCTION
This book provides a one-semester overview of decision analysis for advanced undergraduate and master's degree students. My inspiration to write it has come from many sources, but perhaps most important was a desire to give students access to up-to- date information on modern decision analysis techniques at a level that could be easily understood by those without strong mathematical background. At some points in the book, the student should be familiar with basic statistical concepts normally covered in an undergraduate applied-statistics course. In particular, some familiarity with probability and probability distributions would be helpful in Chapters 7 through 12. Chapter 10 provides a decision-analysis view of data analysis, including regression, and familiarity with such statistical procedures would be an advantage when covering this topic. Algebra is used liberally throughout the book. Calculus concepts are used in a few instances as an explanatory tool. Be assured, however, that the material can be thoroughly understood, and the problems can be worked, without any knowledge of calculus.
I subscribe to the notion that the objective of decision analysis is to help a decision maker think hard about the specific problem at hand, including the overall structure of the problem as well as his or her preferences and beliefs. Decision analysis provides both an overall paradigm and a set of tools with which a decision maker can construct and analyze a model of a decision situation. Above all else, I want students to understand that the purpose of studying decision-analysis techniques is to be able to represent real-world problems using models that can be analyzed to gain insight and understanding. It is through that insight and understanding -- the hoped-for result of the modeling process -- that decisions can be improved.
Use the buttons below to access sections of the hyper-preface.
Introduction | New in the Second Edition | Guidelines for Students
Computers and Decision Analysis | A Word to Instructors
Keeping Up with Changes | Acknowledgements
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