PUBLICATIONS

Robert T. Clemen and James E. Smith. 2009. "On the Choice of Baselines in Multiattribute Portfolio Analysis: A Cautionary Note." To appear in Decision Analysis.

David B. Brown, James E. Smith, and Peng Sun. 2009. "Information Relaxations and Duality in Stochastic Dynamic Programs." (First version: September, 2007) To appear in Operations Research.

Canan Ulu and James E. Smith. 2009. "Uncertainty, Information Acquisition, and Technology Adoption," Operations Research 57 (3), 740-752. The Electronic Companion for this paper may be found here.

J. Eric Bickel, James E. Smith, and Jennifer L. Meyer. 2008. "Modeling Dependence among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions," SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering, 3(4) 233-251. A zipped version of the spreadsheet associated with this paper may be downloaded here; note this spreadsheet contains macros. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2006 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, September, 2006 (paper SPE 102369) and published as a part of the proceedings.

Maxine Savitz et. al. 2007. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase Two), National Research Council, National Academies Press, Washington DC.

J. Eric Bickel and James E. Smith. 2006. "Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model," Decision Analysis 3 (1), 16-32. The spreadsheet associated with this paper may be downloaded here; note this spreadsheet contains macros.

James E. Smith and Robert L. Winkler. 2006. "The Optimizer's Curse:  Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis," Management Science 52 (3), 311-322. A correction to Figure 3 in the paper is described here.

James E. Smith. 2005. "Alternative Approaches for Solving Real-Options Problems (Comment on Brandão et al. 2005)," Decision Analysis 2 (2), 89-102. Brandão et. al.'s paper may be found here and their reply to my comment here.

James E. Smith and Ralph L. Keeney. 2005. "Your Money or Your Life:  A Prescriptive Model for Health, Safety and Consumption Decisions," Management Science 51 (9), 1309–1325.

Robert W. Fri et. al. 2005. Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Applied Research and Development at DOE (Phase One): A First Look Forward, National Research Council, National Academies Press, Washington DC.

Robert L. Winkler and James E. Smith. 2004. "On Uncertainty in Medical Testing," Medical Decision Making 24 (6), 654-658.

James E. Smith. 2004. "Risk Sharing, Fiduciary Duty, and Corporate Risk Attitudes," Decision Analysis 1 (2), 114-27.

James E. Smith. 2004. "Comments on Howard's Precise Decision Language," Decision Analysis 1 (2), 79-81.

James E. Smith and Detlof von Winterfeldt. 2004. "Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science 50 (5), 561-574.

Robert L. Winkler, James E. Smith, and Dennis G. Fryback. 2002. "The Role of Informative Priors in Zero-Numerator Problems:  Being Conservative Versus Being Candid," The American Statistician 56 (1), 1-4. Comments and Replies.

James E. Smith and Kevin F. McCardle. 2002. "Structural Properties of Stochastic Dynamic Programs," Operations Research 50 (5), 796-809.

Eduardo Schwartz and James E. Smith. 2000. "Short-term Variations and Long-term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science 46 (7), 893-911. This paper mentions a stochastic growth rate extension of the model that is available here: Stochastic Growth Rate Extension.

James E. Smith, Robert L. Winkler, and Dennis G. Fryback. 2000. "The First Positive:  Positive Predictive Values in the Extreme," Annals of Internal Medicine 132 (10), 804-809.

James E. Smith. 1999. "Much Ado About Options?," Decision Analysis Newsletter 18 (2): 4-8.

James E. Smith and Robert L. Winkler. 1999. "Casey's Problem: Interpreting and Evaluating a New Test," Interfaces 29 (3), 63-76.

James E. Smith and Kevin F. McCardle. 1999. "Options in the Real World:  Some Lessons Learned in Evaluating Oil and Gas Investments," Operations Research 47 (1), 1-15. 

James E. Smith. 1998. "Evaluating Income Streams:  A Decision Analysis Approach," Management Science 44 (12), 1690-1708.

James E. Smith and Kevin F. McCardle. 1998. "Valuing Oil Properties: Integrating Option Pricing and Decision Analysis Approaches," Operations Research 46 (2), 198-217. 

Patrick L. Brockett, Samuel H. Cox, and James E. Smith. 1998. "Bounds on the Price of Catastrophe Insurance Options on Futures Contracts," in Securitization of Insurance Risks, Society of Actuaries Monograph Series, Schaumburg, Ill..

James E. Smith. 1996. "Fisher Separation and Project Valuation in Partially Complete Markets," Working paper, most recent version, August 1996. 

James E. Smith. 1995. "Generalized Chebychev Inequalities:  Theory and Applications in Decision Analysis," Operations Research 43 (5), 807-825. 

James E. Smith and Robert F. Nau. 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science 41 (5), 795-816.  

James E. Smith. 1993. "Moment Methods for Decision Analysis," Management Science 39 (3), 340-358. 

James E. Smith, Samuel Holtzman and James E. Matheson. 1993. "Structuring Conditional Relationships in Influence Diagrams," Operations Research 41 (2), 280-297. 

James E. Smith, "Discussion of 'Towards Efficient Probabilistic Diagnosis in Multiply Connected Belief Networks,' by Max Henrion," in R. M. Oliver and J. Q. Smith, editors, Influence Diagrams, Belief Nets and Decision Analysis (Wiley, 1990), 403-406.