Pandemic of 2020:
Economic and Financial Implications

Campbell R. Harvey (real time updates on LinkedIn follow me)

[Each question is hyperlinked to an audio file. Form for additional questions.]


Newest material

Recent Media

Recent Pods

#70 June 16, 2020: Risk #4: Policy Fumble (video)
#69 June 15, 2020: Risk #3: Debt Overhang (video) #68 June 11, 2020: Risk #2: Biological Setback (video) #67 June 10, 2020: Risk #1: Rose-Colored Glasses (video)

Recent LinkedIn


COVID-19 Forecasts of New Cases: Morad Elsaify and Campbell R. Harvey
We have developed a flexible tool that we update every evening after 21:00ET (when Johns Hopkins University data are released). The tool provides forecasts of new cases, details inflection points (forecast dates when new cases decrease) and plateau points (forecast date when 90% of new cases have occurred) for all countries. The models can be estimated country by country or individually. As I have mentioned before, the forecasts of inflection and plateau points are very sensitive to new data. Importantly, these models do not take demographic factors into account nor policy actions like manditory quarantine.

LinkedIn posts (full history)

Webinars, Conferences, Media (full history)
Pods (full history)
#70 June 16, 2020: Risk #4: Policy Fumble (video)
#69 June 15, 2020: Risk #3: Debt Overhang (video) #68 June 11, 2020: Risk #2: Biological Setback (video) #67 June 10, 2020: Risk #1: Rose-Colored Glasses (video) #66 May 20, 2020: The discussion has changed (video) #65 May 12, 2020: The economic path forward (video) #64 May 8, 2020: The unemployment rate is far higher than the reported 14.7% #63 May 5, 2020: What is the relation between gold, bitcoin, the stock market and COVID-19? #62 April 29, 2020: You have called on policy makers to pivot the response. What does this mean? #61 April 29, 2020: Why did markets rally today? Was it the Fed statement?
#60 April 24, 2020: How has quantitative easing has influenced the shape of the yield curve and whether this interference has messed up the signals that the yield curve sends today?

#59 April 23, 2020: Can you comment on the biological developments?
#58 April 23, 2020: Can you comment on the Claims?
#57 April 16, 2020: What about the bridge loans to small businesses?
#56 April 16, 2020: Can you comment on the Initial Claims?
#55 April 14, 2020: Can you comment on the IMF report released today?

#54 April 9, 2020: Can you comment on the jobs numbers?
#53 April 9, 2020: The Fed had a busy day today. Can you provide some analysis? #52 April 9, 2020: Are you worried about inflation?
#51 April 8, 2020: Will there be a lost decade?
#50 April 8, 2020: Can you talk about your concerns with the PPP small business loan program?
#49 April 7, 2020: Why has the Treasury program for small business run out of money so soon?
#48 April 7, 2020: Can you discuss the recent Fed initiative? #47 April 7, 2020: There was a study recently released that suggested we are faced with slower growth for years. Can you comment on that?
#46 April 2, 2020: Was there anything surprising in the New Claims data? Can you comment on the unemployment report that will be released tomorrow?
#45 April 2, 2020: Will this be a U, V, or L shaped recovery? #44 April 2, 2020: What are the potential weak links in the chain?
#43 March 30, 2020: We have jobs numbers coming out on Thursday and Friday. What do you expect?
#42 March 30, 2020: The administration was talking about prediction models over the weekend? What did you think?
#41 March 26, 2020: We are now in bull market territory. Do you agree?
#40 March 26, 2020: What do you think of the Coronavirus economic stabilization act of 2020? #39 March 26, 2020: Were you surprised by the job numbers?
#38 March 25, 2020: Two positive days in a row. Are we turning the corner?
#37 March 25, 2020: The aid bill appears to be progressing. Is it enough? #36 March 25, 2020: Did you update your total cases model?
#35 March 24, 2020: You released your forecasting model for new cases today. Can you explain what you did?
#34 March 24, 2020: Markets went up today. Are we over the hump? #33 March 24, 2020: Does the legislation include enough money for small businesses?
#32 March 23, 2020: Is there light at the end of tunnel?
#31 March 23, 2020: Can you talk more about the employment situation? #30 March 23, 2020: The Fed launched a number of initiates today. Are they helpful? #29 March 23, 2020: Is that enough for small business? #28 March 23, 2020: How are these funded?
#27 March 20, 2020: Should we expect unusual macroeconomic data?
#26 March 20, 2020: The Fed took additional action today. Was it helpful? #25 March 20, 2020: Is there any news on support for small business?
#24 March 19, 2020: The T-bill rate went below zero today. What does that mean?
#23 March 19, 2020: Is there a safe haven? #22 March 19, 2020: What about the new claims for unemployment?
#21 March 18, 2020: What is a liquidity trap and what are the implications?
#20 March 18, 2020: Do you think that the Commercial Paper Funding Facility will be helpful? #19 March 18, 2020: Are there any safe havens? #18 March 18, 2020: Is there any good news?
#17 March 17, 2020: Markets calmed today. What has changed?
#16 March 17, 2020: The Fed announced a Commercial Paper Funding Facility today which is backstopped by the Treasury. Does this solve the issue of corporations not being able to get short-term funding? #15 March 17, 2020: Do you believe that the current stimulus proposals will be useful? #14 March 17, 2020: How do you decide who to bail out and who not to bail out?

#13 March 16, 2020: Why did the Fed interest rate cut not calm the markets?
#12 March 16, 2020: How is this crisis different from the Global Financial Crisis? #11 March 16, 2020: What specific steps should be taken by policy makers? #10 March 16, 2020: Why are small businesses so important? #9 March 16, 2020: Why did the market drop by so much? #8 March 16, 2020: Can we learn from other crises?
#7 March 12, 2020: Is the Fed acting too little, too late? #6 March 12, 2020: Are policy makers focused enough on small businesses? #5 March 12, 2020: Is there any good news?
#4 March 11, 2020: Will there be a recession? #3 March 11, 2020: What tools does the Fed and Treasury have to mitigate risks? #2 March 11, 2020: How does this crisis differ from others? #1 March 11, 2020: How does this market crash impact expected returns?

About Professor Harvey:
Campbell R. Harvey is a Distinguished Professor of Finance at Duke University and a former President of the American Finance Association. An important part of his research focuses on risk management. He also serves as a Partner and Senior Advisor to Research Affiliates LLC and as an advisor to Man Group, PLC. Follow him on LinkedIn and on Twitter @camharvey.