Supplementary Table: GDP_XMGDP

Estimating Expected GDP Growth

B. Predicting GDP Growth with Size of Trade Sector

OLS

Coeff.

T-Stat

XMGPD

0.049

2.86

R2 within

0.021

CONSTANT

0.004

0.41

between

0.243

overall

0.091

OLS with Fixed Effects

Coeff.

T-Stat

XMGPD

0.066

1.92

R2 within

0.021

CONSTANT

-0.004

-0.25

between

0.243

overall

0.091

F(16,168) =

3.859

GLS with Panel Specific Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation-Country Specific Intercepts

Coeff.

T-Stat

XMGDP

0.009

0.33

Icoun_2

0.010

0.42

Icoun_3

0.045

1.94

Icoun_4

0.022

1.05

Icoun_5

0.003

0.15

Icoun_6

0.031

1.48

Icoun_7

0.041

1.56

Icoun_8

(dropped)

Icoun_9

0.067

2.68

Icoun_10

0.007

0.09

Icoun_11

-0.011

-0.52

Icoun_12

(dropped)

Icoun_13

0.019

0.90

Icoun_14

-0.009

-0.31

Icoun_15

0.021

0.75

Icoun_16

0.055

1.65

Icoun_17

0.063

2.30

Icoun_18

0.018

0.81

Icoun_19

-0.007

-0.28

Icoun_20

(dropped)

_cons

0.000

0.02

*Annual real GDP growth is regressed on the first lag of the ratio of exports to imports to GDP. The first is

a pooled OLS regression. The second is an OLS regression with fixed effects. The third is a GLS regression

with panel specific heteroskedasticity and serial correlation, as well as country specific intercepts.